Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
The live reading for this market isn’t in the current snapshot. We show no number rather than a stale or invented one — the venue page below stays authoritative.
What the venue is pricing.
Live readings are temporarily unavailable. See the market directly on Polymarket ↗.
The number is the end of a chain. This is the chain.
Daily transit counts still below ~80% of the May baseline past June 20 — at that point normalization by month-end stops being physically reachable.
From a number to a defensible decision.
Here the substrate's tritemporal memory matters most: every transit count, insurance quote, and headline would be stored with the time it became knowable, so a reconstruction of any decision shows exactly what the desk could have known — and detect_leakage() proves nothing from the future crept in. simulate_intervention(do(ceasefire_holds)) would propagate through war-risk premia and transit counts to a revised normalization probability, with each assumed edge named. None of that pipeline is live yet; this pathway is the sketch of it.